This
is a theory describing the strange, confusing and unpredictable results.
Chaotic systems follow precise laws, but their irregular behavior can appear
to be strange, chaotic and random to a normal observer. Chaotic behavior
is common in systems as varied as electric circuits, measles outbreaks,
lasers, economy, weather, traffic jams, earth quakes, clashing gears, heart
rhythms, electrical brain activity, fluids, animal populations, and chemical
reactions. It is suspected that even economic systems, such as the stock
exchange, may be chaotic. The field of chaos is evolving rapidly.
The dynamic
nature of the universe has led to a great deal of scientific research dedicated
to analyzing change. Until recently, it was believed that if the dynamics
of a system didn't follow precise laws, it was due to random external influences.
Therefore, scientists concluded that if random influences could be eliminated,
then the behavior of all such systems could be predicted. It is now known
that many systems can exhibit long-term unpredictability even in the absence
of random influences. Such systems are called chaotic. Even very simple
systems, such as a pendulum, exhibit chaos.
The unpredictability
of chaotic systems are caused by their sensitivity to their conditions,
such as their initial position and velocity. Two identical chaotic systems
set in motion with slightly different initial conditions can quickly exhibit
motions that are quite different. French mathematician Henri Poincaré
concluded that he could not prove the solar system to be completely predictable.
He was the first to state the defining feature of what later became known
as chaos: It may happen that small differences in the initial conditions
produce very great ones in the final phenomena. A small error in the former
will produce an enormous error in the latter. Prediction becomes impossible.
The ramifications
of Poincaré's discovery were not fully appreciated by most scientists
until computers allowed them to easily model and visualize chaotic systems.
Before then, however, pioneering scientists and engineers at NASA used
Poincaré's work to send people and satellites into orbit. Edward
Lorenz, an American meteorologist, discovered in the early 1960s that a
simplified computer model of the weather demonstrated extreme sensitivity
to the initial measured state of the weather. He demonstrated visually
that there was structure in his chaotic weather model that, when plotted
in three dimensions, fell onto a butterfly-shaped fractal set of points
of a type now known as a strange attractor. Lorenz rediscovered chaos and
proved that long-range forecasting of the weather was impossible.
By the
early 1980s, experiments regularly showed that many physical and biological
systems behave chaotically. One of the first such systems to be discovered
was the dripping water faucet. Under certain conditions, the timing between
water drops from a leaking faucet demonstrates chaotic behavior, making
the long-term prediction of the timing of drops impossible.
According
to recent evidence, Poincaré's observations concerning the unpredictability
of the solar system appear to be correct. Observations and computer simulations
of the irregular tumbling motion of Hyperion, a potato-shaped moon of Saturn,
have provided the first conclusive proof that objects in the solar system
can behave chaotically. Recent computer simulations have also shown that
the orbit of Pluto, the outermost planet of the solar system, is chaotic.
Scientists
are currently developing applications that use chaos. New chaos-aware control
techniques are being used to stabilize lasers, manipulate chemical reactions,
encode information, and change chaotic heart rhythms into healthy, regular
heart rhythms. Some scientists claim that they can predict when traffic
jams, earth quakes or economic crises occur!